After navy defeat, what’s subsequent for Nagorno-Karabakh?

YEREVAN: Preventing has come to an finish within the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh area per week after Armenia agreed to signal a Russian-brokered peace accord sealing its defeat to longtime rival Azerbaijan.
However regardless of Armenia ceding swathes of territory and the deployment of a Russian peacekeeping mission, an enduring resolution to the decades-long battle stays elusive.
As a part of the deal, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh should return the Aghdam, Kalbajar and Lachin districts to Azerbaijan beginning on November 20, with a completion deadline of December 1.
These districts and 4 others that Baku captured in the course of the six-week battle between September 27 and November 9 had been occupied by Armenia since a post-Soviet conflict within the 1990s. The districts weren’t in Nagorno-Karabakh correct however shaped a safety belt across the area.
Now tens of hundreds of ethnic Armenians who have been inspired to maneuver into the area after the 1990s conflict are fleeing as Azerbaijanis did some 30 years in the past.
AFP journalists have witnessed a mass exodus from the Kalbajar district, whose handover was delayed till November 25 to permit the Armenians time to go away the area.
Many set their houses alight to make them uninhabitable for the incoming Azerbaijanis.
An inflow of refugees is predicted to end in an financial, social and humanitarian problem for Armenia, an impoverished nation of three million individuals.
Regardless of shedding swathes of territory, together with the strategically important second-largest city of Shusha, Nagorno-Karabakh will see its existence assured by some 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to be deployed for an preliminary interval of 5 years.
“The presence of Russian troopers within the area will likely be some of the vital elements in making certain {that a} conflict doesn’t begin once more,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has stated.
The Russian mission may also guard the strategic Lachin hall, the only hyperlink between the area and Armenia.
Between 75,000 and 90,000 of the area’s 150,000 inhabitants have already fled the preventing, and native authorities have known as on residents to return.
The primary buses started arriving in Karabakh’s important metropolis Stepanakert on the weekend.
An extended-term resolution to the Karabakh battle, which has plagued the South Caucasus because the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, will not be mooted within the peace accord ending the newest preventing.
For the reason that mid-1990s, efforts by the co-chairs of the Minsk Group — Russia, France and the USA — haven’t produced lasting outcomes.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has adopted a tough stance in victory, backtracking on an earlier promise of autonomy for Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Karabakh may have no (autonomous) standing so long as I’m president,” Aliyev has stated.
Baku also can depend on the unwavering help of Turkey, which after having armed and supported Azerbaijan within the newest conflict, has established itself as a key participant within the area.
Ankara may also play an element within the peacekeeping operations, even when its function stays imprecise.
Aliyev, who sees the Minsk Group members as pro-Armenian, has welcomed a brand new negotiating format that would come with Turkey.
Traditionally, Yerevan sees Turkey as a foe decided to wipe Armenia off the map and can push to exclude it from any future negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh.

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